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Has Adada.eth been profitable in trading RPL?

Commentary written based on data snapshot on 2023-01-13, page loads: loading...
Sources: Ethereum-Adada.eth, Coingecko API

When one lurks in the rocketpool #trading channel for long enough, one begins to realise Adada.eth is somewhat of a mysterious celebrity who never speaks a word using their elusive pseudonym.

Their rise to fame has been in frequently trading RPL token, which somewhat has garnered a reputation for buying high and selling low.

The question arises then, is Adada.eth actually profitable? Has Adada.eth's apparently misplaced trades, actually been pure genius over time?

This shitpost aims to find out.

TLDR: No. Not yet anyway ❤️ Rocketpool believes in you Adada

Assumptions and Caveats
  • We don't know any other addresses or where Adada.eth gets their money from so analysis is confined to their on-chain addresses, and transactions made by that
  • This analysis has been built with a snapshot of data, therefore commentary and conclusions will only valid at time of writing this post (2023-01-13)
  • Adada.eth primarily trades in USD, but has made a few minor swaps in ETH. Converting to USD basis will be done via coingecko data, using the daily close of ETH price
    • A simplification that introduces some inaccuracy to the result
  • Standard accuracy of this analysis is guaranteed only up to shitpost quality
Methodology
  • Get all Adada.eth's ERC20 RPL transactions containing an obvious swap
  • Calculate the cost basis of those transactions in USD
    • For transactions performed against ETH, resolve the ETH price value based on the daily close (a simplification)
  • Present metrics such as volume, cost basis, profitability
  • Code to get data: Repo
Adada's Stats
First RPL Trade
2021-02-13
Swaps
565
Total USD Volume
$4,081,406
Total RPL Volume
169,154 RPL
Gas spent on swaps
0.116 ETH
Realised Profit

Note: all graphs below are plotted by end-of-day values. Intraday values may vary from the daily close value.

  • Adada.eth was profitable during August 2022, but after that it has been all downhill unfortunately
  • As of 2023-01-14 Adada.eth has approximately $13,400 USD in losses, having traded a total USD volume of $4,080,000
  • Peak realised profits on RPL trades occurred on 2022-08-09. Good one Adada.
    • From mid Sept 2022, as RPL dropped ~20% from $29 to $24, Adada.eth lost all realised gains :(
  • Peak realised loss, which occurred during a period of increasing RPL price, occurred on 2023-01-09. Overtrading can sometimes be the savage enemy.
RPL Cost Price
  • Recently Adada.eth has been trading more frequently, both buying and selling, hence cost price is closely tracking market price
RPL Balance
  • Peak RPL balance held on 9 January 2023, of 4063 RPL, which also coincides with peak realised loss. :(
  • Adada.eth switched off from trading RPL between June 2021 and June 2022, holding about 34 RPL and registering only one trade during that period. That first June 2021 dump was a tough one eh.